Predicting the “Unpredictable”

Our January speakers are Max Berniker and Ian Stevenson, who specialize in physical medicine and rehabilitation at Northwestern University. Their talk is entitled: People are very good at statistics-when they do not think they are actually doing statistics.

Abstract:

This is a survey of results about the accuracy of prediction when the predictor has no prior knowledge about the process that s/he must forecast. No prior knowledge means just that; no information about moments, distributions, periods etc.

For example, suppose one is asked to predict successive outcomes of an infinite sequence of 0's and 1's. Accuracy will be measured by the fraction of correct guesses. With no information beyond this, how well can one guarantee to do?

Predicting the actual outcome is demanding and in many cases inappropriate; think for example of the case when the sequence is generated by a stochastic process. In these cases it is more natural to ask for a probability forecast. How should one measure the error of a probability forecast? Given this measure, are there forecasting methods that guarantee a small error no matter what process generates the sequence?

Lunch is $30 for CCASA members, $35 for nonmembers. Nonmembers, join the chapter for a year for only $15 and get the discount plus all the other benefits of membership! As usual, the Lucille Derrick Fund will purchase a limited number of tickets for students who wish to attend. If you are a student and would like to take advantage of this offer, please register online below, and contact Lou Fogg, expressing your interest.

Please register for the luncheon by Friday April 24, 2009.

Register online at http://www.123signup.com/calendar?Org=chicagoasa

Questions: Contact Lou Fogg, VP for Luncheons Phone: 312-942-6239 or E-mail: louis_fogg@rush.edu