Articles have been appearing in print and on blogs recently that have determined that statistics is the next 'sexy' profession of the next ten years. I'm less concerned with the next ten years than I am with the next century. If you look at the expansion of statistical thinking into a variety of fields, I think we could safely assert that statistics has been the sexy profession of the last 90-odd years, in any event.

I mark the expansion of the profession for 90 years because it was 90 years ago (1919) that Sir Ronald Fisher started working at the Rothamsted Agricultural Research Station in Hertfordshire, England. Fisher was a visionary of his age. His statistical discoveries and the ways in which he applied them in his classic text, Statistical Methods for Research Workers, expanded the work that statisticians engaged in to an enormous extent, and marked the first great expansion of the field.

The field continued to grow throughout the 20th century, but my contention in this letter is that a second 'great expansion' is underway. I was at a conference this summer, and a colleague made the comment during one of his talks that in past conferences, nonstatistical scientists came up with substantive theories, and the statisticians struggled to model them. He said that now there are more statistical theories than there are substantive theories to animate them. Stating this more simply, statistics is greatly expanding its ability to develop mathematical models that can be used to describe the real world. Perhaps faster than the real world can come up with uses for all of our models.

The second great expansion is (IMHO) due to technology. The power of the desktop computer combined with the communications facility of the internet has allowed statistical science to make enormous advances over the next few years. These models are much more powerful than the ones that Sir Ronald Fisher developed, but they are also much more complicated for nonstatisticians to understand. And this makes the statistician a very valuable person.

So, this makes this a terrific time to preside over this great chapter. The economy may be moribund, the Cubs may not be able to find an outfielder who knows how many outs there are, but we statisticians have created a world where we are in the midst of enormous progress and expansion of our role in society.

So, my message for the upcoming year is that we should celebrate our good fortune for being in a field where so much is going right. Please take the opportunity to come to one of our events. This is the best world to be in right now. Maybe, we're even sexy? Or not.

Best Wishes for a great year ahead of us,

Lou Fogg

president@chicagoasa.org

October 10th, 2009